Flu might turn worst killer

The poorest most likely to die if a virus causes a flu pandemic.

22 December 2006
NEW DELHI, INDIA

The flu pandemic holds a threat several times bigger than estimated. According to new estimates, around 62 million people in the world are likely to die if there is a flu pandemic and more than 70,000 of those deaths will be in the United Kingdom. It had earlier been warned that the likely death toll have ranged from two million to one billion.

A study published by the Lancet medical journal says that the earlier estimates were more or less based on historical documents and witness accounts of the devastation caused by the 1918-20 Spanish flu.

The latest study has concluded thus after calculating that between 51 million and 81 million individuals will die around the world if a similar virus causes a flu pandemic now. They say the deaths would be concentrated in the 0 to 14, 15 to 19, and 30- to 44-year-old age groups.

The stuffy goes on to say that the poorest are far more likely to die. As many as 96 per cent of deaths in a pandemic today would be in the developing world, it says. 

Though rapid treatment using antiviral drugs such as Tamiflu is possible today, the potential risk to populations of sub-Saharan Africa, south Asia and other developing regions presents a policy dilemma, it points out. 

So if a flu of big proportions strikes, the world itself would come under threat as the casualties might even surpass a war-like situation, feel experts.