One flu over the chicken's nest

The dreaded bird flu hits India. No human deaths reported yet, but it is better to be safe than sorry.

PRAVEENA SHIVRAM

22 February 2006
CHENNAI, INDIA

If there is one thing people the world over are thinking twice about, it has to be that piece of chicken. The bird flu scare seems to have found a place in most countries around the world, as more and more chicken and eggs are being culled and destroyed.

While Indian health officials are going personally to houses in the affected areas to check for symptoms of the H5N1 virus, in European Union nations, 250 German troops were employed to clear away dead birds. Perhaps a few days back, since the epidemic broke out in India, it would have been okay to say, it happened to them, cannot happen to us, but the veracity of the epidemic seems to have gripped the whole nation, as the worst case scenario is being played out every concerned person's mind.

And if you are thinking what the worst-case scenario could be, a report published by an independent policy body, The Lowy Institute, in Australia, spells out just that. " A global bird flu pandemic could kill as many as 142-million people and wipe about $4.4-trillion from economic output," the report states, adding that even a mild epidemic could impact the world, as it "is estimated to cost the world 1,4-million lives and close to 0,8% of GDP [approximately 330 billion US dollars] in lost economic output". Scary, and yet a potential truth.

In India, with thousands and thousands of birds already destroyed, and poultry farms in Maharashtra being thrown under the blanket of suspicion, the results are already disastrous. While Maharashtra is on its way of slaughtering 7,00,000 birds within a radius of 3km from the affected areas surrounding Navapur, it is estimated that the if the epidemic goes out of control, the damage to the Indian economy could be huge, considering the fact that India exports 84.4 million dollars worth of poultry and eggs annually.

Back in 2003, bird flu took away 92 lives, mostly in Asia and a second outbreak now is like an alarm bell. World over, estimates are flooding every news channel, as people flock to hospitals with a slightest cough or cold. While most cases arise out of direct contact with the affected bird, scientists have now predicted that the virus could possibly mutate into a form that can easily be transmitted between humans, and thus leading to an actual epidemic.

Though there has been no human victim as yet, with 11 countries having reported of bird flu outbreaks, the panic is all but tangible. Three children in Maharastra have already been quarantined in hospitals, under the suspect the being affected, confirms the Health Secretary of Maharashtra, Vijay Satbir Singh, even as the government is trying to quell doubts by saying the "situation is under control".

Is the bird flu really threatening to be a full-fledged epidemic, or has the media blown it out of proportion? Well, just as hotels and restaurants the world over are dropping chicken and eggs from their menu, it is safe to imitate them and exercise the paradigm of prevention is better than cure. For the rest, we will only have to wait and watch.